DMN: Saints, Colts midseason favorites

I like the way Vegas does it. Really changed my thinking this week--talk show guy said something like he always pays attention to the Vegas line because they are in it for money. No heartstrings attached to a team, no homers allowed--cause only winners pay. I now pay much more attention to a list like this than one from SI, ESPN, NFP, BCS, et al.

You've got to take the Vegas odds with some grains of salt. Yes they are objective but you have to remember what they are trying to do. Their goal is not to pick winners but to balance their books. A perfect line would exactly balance the betting on all the losing teams in order to pay off the winners. That way they could take their "administrative fees' and everyone is happy. So their line reflects their view of the future but it also reflects what people are currently betting on. Just like in the stock market, bettors typically over-value past performance. For that reason, teams that have done well in past years, such as the Pats, tend to get over-rated while teams that have done poorly in the past, such as the Bengals, tend to be under-rated. Dallas tends to be over-rated because the Cowboys have so many fans so the team gets more action supporting them. This drives down the odds.

Can't argue those odds, pretty much what I'd expect. What's interesting is how both the NFC top contenders play in domes. It won't be easy to be the road team going into a loud dome to play a playoff game.

Falcons at 40-1 might be worth a very cheap wager. They aren't very good on the road but they are at least familar with the Saints should they meet a 3rd time...

NFC East is not underrated by Vegas, it is overrated by the media.

No. No. No. No and no.

Vegas does not assess who they think will win. Vegas move lines based on how people place bets.

The Saints and Colts have short odds, because thats where people are betting. Vegas has done no football analysis. If they have analyzied anything its media hype, since thats what actually moves bets.

Vegas

Does Not

Analyze

Football

I've been wrong before.... but I think the Vikings and Eagles have a better chance to be in the SB than the Saints....

PREDICTION: Eagles/Ravens Super Bowl. Eagles 31, Ravens 22.

Bowen's boys @ 35/1 and the Colts due this week. See how far the line changes next week....

Hard to argue with the odds as they stand now, but if I were looking for a darkhorse pick, the Eagles look like a good value at 14/1

Well,

When Vegas picks against the Broncos, they're 6-1, so keep it up Caesar's, Venetian, etc. The Broncos will make you look like horse's rear-ends with your so-called astute picks. War the Broncos being the worst Super Bowl champions of all time, even as the Cards were the worst Super Bowl participants of all time last year!

@ Jack, I can't tell if you're disagreeing with Mike L or daveallen (or both), but I have a question for you: I agree with you that "Vegas does not assess who they think will win. Vegas moves lines based on how people place bets." However, there has to be a starting line to get the action going, right? For example, they wouldn't want to start out with the Colts as 100-1 because there'd be too much early action on the Colts, and moving the line down over time might not balance out the money. (Same with the lines at the beginning of the season.) So if Mike is publishing the "starting" lines, isn't that the result of some analysis on Vegas' part? Or are you saying that these lines are simply the result of Vegas' examination of how the public has been betting games thus far this season?

Not trying to be a smarta$$, I'm just an East Coaster with little Vegas experience who wants to know how this works. Thanks.

Dave B,

Vegas is always going to look first and formost at how and why people place bets. They have gads and gads of data to mine for historical trends. They watch the news.

When they put down the starting lines what they've analyzed is actually how they think fans will be based on what the news sources are already saying, and based on how their historical data matches up for any relevant factors. Their lines are really just an aggregate of what ESPN, SI, Fox Sports, Yahoo Sports etc are already saying, combined with the information they already have about who is betting.

There is no good reason for anyone in vegas to spend a moment thinking about what the outcome of the games might be. all they need to do is watch the AP feed and the major media outlets and move the lines when they see something that will drive betting.

If ESPN reports that Peyton Manning has been placed on IR, no one in Vegas thinks they x% less likely to win the Superbowl. They think, no one is going to lay money on the Colts now unless we drop the line way down.

To clarify on your question, I was replying to anyone advancing the premise that "vegas thinks x about the nfl". The vegas thinks about how to get people to place bets, and how to control the math so that the house will win. The lines should be seen only as a function of how people are betting.

If you want to read something into it, then say the lines show what bettors are thinking.